The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: A Game Of 'Good Trip, Bad Trip' With The 2024 Kentucky Derby Field

Pedigree: Good Magic - Puca (by Big Brown)
Owners: West Paces Racing, R.A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Jockey: Luis Saez
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Conventional logic says the rail is death for a horse’s Derby chances. However, Dornoch uses his early speed as an asset and establishes position early. That, combined with the stamina-oriented pedigree that full brother Mage rode to Derby success one year ago, puts him in the mix as the field turns for home and gets him a check at a big price.

Bad Trip: The rail is, indeed, death for Dornoch’s Derby chances. He’s forced to use too much energy early on to secure valuable positioning, and he has nothing left when the field rounds the far turn and the stalking-types launch their respective bids.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Dornoch was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. All three of her foals to race are winners, also including Kentucky Derby winner Mage and stakes-placed Gunning. Grade 1 winner Finnegans Wake can be found further down the page.

Dornoch sold for $325,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Runnymede Farm consigned the colt, as agent.

#2: Sierra Leone

Pedigree: Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (by Malibu Moon)
Owners: Magnier, Tabor, Smith, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, and Brant
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Debby L. Oxley (KY)
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Morning Line Odds: 3-1

Good Trip: Chad Brown sheds his “best trainer that hasn’t yet won a Kentucky Derby” label with what might be the best 3-year-old he’s ever had. Already a winner of two major prep races, Sierra Leone drops back and passes most of the field with an electrifying late move. In addition to Brown getting his first Derby win, so does jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

Bad Trip: The post position means Sierra Leone gets crunched leaving the starting gate - one he had issues behind prior to his win in the Blue Grass. A horse that has shown some eccentricities never gets truly comfortable, and he’s left with far too much to do.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Sierra Leone was bred in Kentucky by Debby Oxley, out of the Grade 1-winning Malibu Moon mare Heavenly Love, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. Heavenly Love, who raced as a homebred for Oxley, has a page that includes Japanese champion Zenno Rob Roy, Grade 2 winner Forever Darling, and Grade 1-placed stakes winner Darling My Darling.

The Coolmore partnership secured Sierra Leone for $2.3 million at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Gainesway consigned the colt, as agent.

#3: Mystik Dan

Pedigree: Goldencents - Ma’am (by Colonel John)
Owners: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: The skies open up prior to Kentucky Derby 150, producing the type of wet track in which Mystik Dan romped in the Southwest. While other 3-year-olds struggle with the footing, Mystik Dan loves it, works out a trip from his inside post, and pulls off an upset to give McPeek (raised in nearby Lexington, Ky.) his first Derby win.

Bad Trip: The weather cooperates with the wishes of the general public, rather than those in Mystik Dan’s camp. He gets a pace to run at, but just can’t gain much ground turning for home and settles for finishing in the back half of the field.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Mystik Dan races as a Kentucky homebred for Gasaway, Hamby, and 4G Racing. He is the first foal to race out of the winning Colonel John mare Ma'am. He hails from the family of Grade 1 winner Siphonic.

#4: Catching Freedom

Pedigree: Constitution - Catch My Drift (by Pioneerof the Nile)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning Line Odds: 8-1

Good Trip: Catching Freedom, who finally caught a clean, trouble-free trip in the Louisiana Derby, does so again in his second start beneath Flavien Prat. He surges in the race’s final half-mile, reels in the pace-setters, and gives trainer Brad Cox his second Kentucky Derby victory (and the first one he can celebrate the day of the race).

Bad Trip: Catching Freedom, who found trouble in every start prior to the Louisiana Derby, does so again against 19 other horses, going a new distance, in front of 150,000 screaming fans. Such a scenario isn’t often kind to 3-year-olds, and Catching Freedom regresses off of his career-best race.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catching Freedom was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile mare Catch My Drift. All three of Catch My Drift's foals to race are winners, also including Grade 3-placed Bishops Bay and stakes-placed Strava.

Catching Freedom sold for $575,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent.

#5: Catalytic

Pedigree: Catalina Cruiser - One Show Only (by Distorted Humor)
Owners: Bobo, Davies, and Isaacs
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Breeder: Fred W. Hertrich III (KY)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Catalytic sits close to the pace early on and gives his connections a brief thrill, as he remains in contention going around the far turn. As in the Florida Derby, though, he can’t quite kick on with those in the top flight, but he hangs around to finish in the top half of the Kentucky Derby field.

Bad Trip: Catalytic bounces off of what was easily a new lifetime-best effort. He’s in the mix early on as the field goes past the Twin Spires for the first time, but he drops back through the field when the real running starts.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catalytic was bred in Kentucky by Fred W. Hertrich III, out of the placed Distorted Humor mare One Show Only, who has had two winners from four foals to race. Grade 1 winner Bluegrass Cat can be found in his extended family, along with Grade 2 winners Lord of the Game and Dramedy.

Catalytic initially sold as a weanling to Machmer Hall for $70,000 at the 2021 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent. He then sold to FFF for $125,000 at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, consigned by Machmer Hall.

#6: Just Steel

Pedigree: Justify - Irish Lights (by Fastnet Rock)
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Breeder: Summerhill Farm (KY)
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: The battle-tested Just Steel, already making his 12th career start, isn’t fazed by the bright lights of the Derby stage. Exiting a strong second behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby, he stalks the pace and finishes well enough to hit the board for a trainer who’s done that plenty of times over his long, distinguished career.

Bad Trip: The decidedly-not-battle-tested Keith Asmussen, riding in his first-ever Kentucky Derby, is fazed by the bright lights of the Derby stage. He and Just Steel, who has won just twice in his career to date, find these waters just a bit too deep.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Just Steel was bred in Kentucky by Summerhill Farm, out of the Australian Thousand Guineas-winning Fastnet Rock mare Irish Lights. All five of her foals to race are winners, also including Australian Group 2 winner Omei Sword and English stakes winner Lipizzaner.

Just Steel sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Eaton Sales, agent.

#7: Honor Marie

Pedigree: Honor Code - Dame Marie (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Ribble Farms, Eiserman, Fishbein, and Fishbein
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Breeder: Royce Pullham (KY)
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: The “buzz horse” following his most recent local workout makes good on his potential. A proven lover of this Churchill Downs surface, Honor Marie wins another stakes race over it, this time on the biggest stage possible for a trainer and jockey teaming up with their very first Kentucky Derby runner.

Bad Trip: The steam isn’t quite enough for a horse that’s chased some of this race’s favorites in each of his last two starts. Those rivals show up again, and Honor Marie’s love of Churchill Downs isn’t enough to turn the tables on those foes (plus a few new faces from elsewhere on the Derby trail).

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Honor Marie was bred in Kentucky by Royce Pullham, out of the Grade 2-placed Smart Strike mare Dame Marie. He is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed Abarta. English St. Leger winner Rule of Law can be found further down the page, along with French Group 1 winner Feed the Flame and Grade 3 winner Sacred Life.

Honor Marie sold for $40,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency handled the colt, as agent.

#8: Just a Touch

Pedigree: Justify - Touching Beauty (by Tapit)
Owners: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing, and Detampel
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Don Alberto Corp. (KY)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: For the second time in as many years, the Kentucky Derby is won by a horse that did not run as a 2-year-old. Just a Touch runs to his distance-heavy pedigree, turns the tables on Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone, and capitalizes on a perfect stalk-and-pounce trip to win the roses.

Bad Trip: Just a Touch sits, well, just a touch too close to what figures to be a lively early pace. He couldn’t hold off Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, and he once again has trouble with closers (and maybe some front-runners, too) going a longer distance in just his fourth career start.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Just a Touch was bred in Kentucky by Don Alberto Corp., out of the Grade 3-winning Tapit mare Touching Beauty, who five winners from six foals to race also includes stakes-placed Corps of Discovery. Don Alberto Corp. purchased Touching Beauty at auction for $800,000, and the operation recently sold the mare privately to John Stewart, co-owner of Just a Touch.

Just at Touch sold to Scanlon Training and Sales, agent for $125,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, consigned by Brookdale Sales. The Scanlon operation then sold the colt to Fergus Galvin, agent, for $300,000 at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.

#10: T O Password

Pedigree: Copano Rickey - To Rachel (by King Kamehameha)
Owner: Tomoya Ozasa
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Breeder: Yanagawa Bokujo (JPN)
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: T O Password gives his connections a thrill leading under the wire the first time. The Japanese invader, who has shown early speed in the past, is on or near the lead early before beating a steady retreat back through the field.

Bad Trip: T O Password, who figures to be one of the longest shots on the board, never makes the lead and never plays a role in the race.

#11: Forever Young

Pedigree: Real Steel - Forever Darling (by Congrats)
Owner: Susumu Fujita
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Breeder: Northern Farm (JPN)
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: Forever Young ends several significant droughts in capturing the Kentucky Derby. In improving to six-for-six (with wins in multiple countries on multiple continents), Forever Young becomes the first Japanese-bred horse to win the roses, as well as the first horse to pull off the UAE Derby-Kentucky Derby double.

Bad Trip: The travel finally wears down Forever Young. The plodding six-furlong drill at Churchill Downs wasn’t simply a Japanese conditioner training differently, but the sign of a tired horse. Forever Young is not a factor on the first Saturday in May, and Japan goes another year without a Kentucky Derby winner.

#12: Track Phantom

Pedigree: Quality Road - Miss Sunset (by Into Mischief)
Owners: L and N Racing, Brewster, Caroom, and Breeze Easy
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Track Phantom shakes off his Louisiana Derby dud, makes the lead, and gives his opponents something to think about turning for home. His stride shortens in the lane, and he’s ultimately reeled in, but channeling his winter form is enough to get him into the trifecta or superfecta at a pretty big price.

Bad Trip: The Louisiana Derby wasn’t necessarily a dud, but an indication he doesn’t want to go this far. Track Phantom contends for the lead, but has to spend valuable energy to do it. With that in mind, he doesn’t have the stamina to put up a fight as the field goes around the far turn.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Track Phantom was bred in Kentucky by Breeze Easy, out of the Grade 2-winning Into Mischief mare Miss Sunset, whose two foals to race are both winners.

The colt sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent.

#13: West Saratoga

Pedigree: Exaggerator - Mo Wicked (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Harry Veruchi
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Breeder: Two Hearts Farm II LLC (KY)
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: After being the feel-good horse leading up to the Kentucky Derby, West Saratoga puts forth a career-best effort and finishes in the top half of the field. The $11,000 auction purchase that fought his way into the Derby field ultimately doesn’t have what it takes to affect the outcome, but he outfinishes several horses that cost significantly more at auction over the past few years.

Bad Trip: West Saratoga just isn’t up to this level of competition. He labors towards the back of the field from start to finish.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: West Saratoga was bred in Kentucky by Two Hearts Farm II LLC, out of the unraced Uncle Mo mare Mo Wicked, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 1 winner Wickedly Perfect can be found in his extended family.

West Saratoga sold to Harry Veruchi for $11,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Hidden Brook consigned the colt, as agent.

#14: Endlessly

Pedigree: Oscar Performance - Dream Fuhrever (by Langfuhr)
Owner: Amerman Racing
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Breeder: Mrs. Jerry Amerman (KY)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: For the third consecutive year, the Jeff Ruby Steaks serves as a key prep. The race that produced 2022 winner Rich Strike and 2023 runner-up Two Phil’s once again produces a contender, as Endlessly takes to dirt in his first start over the surface and hits the board at a big number.

Bad Trip: Endlessly turns out to be a turf horse. He wants no part of the dirt, and the case of Derby Fever suffered by his owners requires the team to regroup following the race.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Endlessly was bred in Kentucky by Mrs. Jerry Amerman, out of the unraced Langfuhr mare Dream Fuhrever, who is the dam of two winners from five foals to race. His second dam is the French-bred Grade 3-placed stakes winner Society Dream, who is the pivot point for runners including Grade 1 winner Coffee Clique and Grade 3 winner Admission Office.

#15: Domestic Product

Pedigree: Practical Joke - Goods And Services (by Paynter)
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: The “other” Chad Brown turns out to be the one with the best Derby chance. Domestic Product, who beat favorite Fierceness in the Holy Bull and won the no-betting-allowed Tampa Bay Derby, finally gets a pace to chase beneath one of the best riders in the game. His best isn’t enough to win the race, but he rallies late to hit the board and reward exacta and/or trifecta players.

Bad Trip: Domestic Product doesn’t stack up on figures and isn’t fast enough to make an impact. Ortiz’s efforts to get his mount motivated go unanswered and he finishes well back.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Domestic Product races as a Kentucky homebred for Klaravich Stables, out of the unraced Paynter mare Goods and Services, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 3 winner Cherokee Queen can be found in his extended family.

#16: Grand Mo the First

Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Lilies So Fair (by Giant’s Causeway)
Owner: Granpollo Stable
Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
Breeder: John D. Gunther (KY)
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Victor Barboza, Jr.’s first trip to the Kentucky Derby comes with a horse that outruns his odds. He can’t compete with the best of the crop, but he does outfinish several horses that want no part of the Kentucky Derby distance.

Bad Trip: Grand Mo the First finished 16 lengths behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby, and that gap between him and the best horses of his generation only gets wider with an additional furlong.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Grand Mo the First was bred in Kentucky by John D. Gunther, out of the winning Giant's Causeway mare Lilies So Fair, whose six foals to race are all winners, also including stakes-placed Palladium. Grade 1 winners Materiality, Annapolis, and Leslie's Rose can be found in his extended family, along with Grade 2 winners Eye of the Tiger and My Miss Sophia.

The colt sold to David Geofroy for $135,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, consigned by Hill 'n' Dale Sales Agency.

#17: Fierceness

Pedigree: City of Light - Nonna Bella (by Stay Thirsty)
Owner: Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning Line Odds: 5/2

Good Trip: This is the easiest entry to write in this entire list. In this instance, the good version of Fierceness shows up, gets the type of trip Big Brown and American Pharoah enjoyed from far-outside posts, never faces any meaningful adversity, and wins as much the best (as he did in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby)…

Bad Trip: …and in this instance, the bad version of Fierceness shows up and folds (as he did in the Champagne and the Holy Bull) when faced with the obstacles that sometimes pop up on the first Saturday in May.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Fierceness is a homebred for Repole Stable, and he is the first foal to race out of the winning Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Outwork, and Grade 2 winner Cairo Prince can also be found in the extended family.

#18: Stronghold

Pedigree: Ghostzapper - Spectator (by Jimmy Creed)
Owners: Eric and Sharon Waller
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Breeder: Eric Waller & Sharon Waller (KY)
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Stronghold benefits from having Fierceness to his inside. The presence of that frontrunner means the Santa Anita Derby winner (who has never been worse than second in six tries) can work out a trip from his outside post, establish tactical positioning, and have every chance when the real running starts. Perhaps he’s not as fast as Fierceness, but he may have more potential to save ground and give himself a chance.

Bad Trip: The extra furlong winds up hurting Stronghold, whose bottom-side pedigree hints at some stamina concerns. He gets that early position, but his gas tank runs dry as the field turns for home.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Stronghold races as a Kentucky homebred for Eric and Sharon Waller, and he is the first foal out of the Grade 2-winning Jimmy Creed mare Spectator. Spectator, second dam Diva's Tribute, and third dam Swiss Diva were all homebreds for the Waller program.

#19: Resilience

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Meadowsweet (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Bushnell and Waldman
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Pam & Martin Wygod (KY)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Resilience continues his progression with another step forward in his most important race to date. The Wood Memorial winner works out a passable trip from a tricky post, and while he’s not quite good enough to win, he improves enough to earn a minor award and juice up some of the exotics wagers.

Bad Trip: The Wood turns out to be one of the weaker Kentucky Derby prep races. Resilience, who chased a few Derby rivals in the Risen Star, finds himself behind them once again after a mile and a quarter.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Resilience was bred in Kentucky by Pam and Martin Wygod, out of the winning Smart Strike mare Meadowsweet, also a Wygod homebred, whose two foals to race are both winners. His second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake, putting this colt in the family of Grade 1 winners Courageous Cat and After Market, as well as UAE Group 2 winner Jalil.

#20: Society Man

Pedigree: Good Magic - You Cheated (by Colonel John)
Owners: West Paces Racing, Gargan, and GMP Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: SF Bloodstock (KY)
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Buoyed by a world-class rider looking for a first-ever Kentucky Derby win, Society Man outruns his odds (like he did when second in the Wood Memorial at odds of 106-1). There’s enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest 10 furlongs isn’t totally beyond his scope, unlike a few of his rivals.

Bad Trip: Society Man pays for the far-outside post, the fact that the Wood wasn’t a strong prep race, and that he doesn’t quite stack up on speed figures. Despite the presence of Dettori, he’s not a factor on Saturday.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Society Man was bred in Kentucky by SF Bloodstock, out of the winning Colonel John mare You Cheated, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. She most recently sold to Glen Robertson for $12,000 at the 2022 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale.

Society Man sold to Oracle Bloodstock, agent, for $85,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, consigned by Hartwell Farm.

#21: Epic Ride

Pedigree: Blame - Pick a Time (by Gio Ponti)
Owner: Welch Racing
Trainer: John Ennis
Breeder: Fred W. Hertrich III (KY)
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: It can be argued a large part of the “good trip” was Epic Ride drawing in, which he did on Tuesday following the news of Encino’s defection from the field. Now that he’s in, he figures to show some speed from the far outside, where he could be one of the race’s main players going into the last half-mile.

Bad Trip: Epic Ride, who was a distant third behind Sierra Leone and Just a Touch in the Blue Grass, sees that gap grow with another furlong of ground. After disputing the pace (and likely going pretty wide to do it), Epic Ride tires down the backstretch and isn’t close at the wire.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Epic Ride was bred in Kentucky by Fred Hertrich III, out of the unplaced Gio Ponti mare Pick a Time, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. His extended family features Grade 2 winners Dominus and Miss Dracarys.

Owner Welch Racing purchased Epic Ride for $160,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency consigned him, as agent.

#22: Mugatu

Pedigree: Blofeld - Union Way (by Union Rags)
Owners: Average Joe Racing Stable and Wells
Trainer: Jeff Engler
Breeder: JSM Equine LLC (KY)
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Mugatu’s connections get rewarded for running their horse rather than keeping him bubble-wrapped. Another runner scratches, Mugatu gets to run in the Kentucky Derby as his 13th lifetime start (more than any other runner in the field), and his owner and trainer get the thrill of the Derby experience.

Bad Trip: The less said about his talent level compared to the rest of this field, the better. A horse still eligible for a first-level allowance runs accordingly and is never a factor in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Mugatu was bred in Kentucky by JSM Equine, out of the placed Union Rags mare Union Way, whose three foals to race are all winners, all by Blofeld. Grade 1-placed Palacio de Amor can be found on his page.

Mugatu sold to Dan Preiss, agent, for $14,000 at the 2023 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale. Wavertree Stables was the consignor.