Kentucky Derby Betting Angles presented by FanDuel: The More We Learn, The Less We Know

At the other end of the spectrum was the 1986 Kentucky Derby, where Bill Shoemaker put on a riding exhibition on how to win from the number one post aboard Ferdinand – despite trouble at the start. It was the last year a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the number one post.

Statistically speaking, the worst post is number 17, which has a 0-for-44 mark, but number six is not much better, its 2-for-94 record coming in at 2.1 percent wins from starts.

As far as I’m concerned, there is no “jinx” of post 17 (or six); it’s just a statistical anomaly. In fact, horses in the 17 post position might actually be starting from the 18^th stall out from the rail – not the 17th. Prior to the introduction of a new 20-stall single gate in 2020, Churchill Downs employed two starting gates – a 14-stall main gate and six-stall auxiliary gate. The width of the two gates, plus the gap between them, did put horses in the number one post at a disadvantage because they had to angle outward slightly after the start to avoid running into the rail at the top of the stretch. When all 20 stalls were not needed, the official starter often would leave that inside stall empty and make the second stall post position one, the third stall post two, and so on.

What was the Kentucky Derby like before the starting gate? Watch movie clips of Clyde Van Dusen’s victory in 1929.

The 20-stall gate (65-feet wide in a 120-foot space on the track at the top of the stretch) should create a more equitable Kentucky Derby start than when two gates were employed. However, horses are still going to break slowly, stumble, or veer in or out – jeopardizing their chances and oftentimes those of the horses around them. Racing luck is always going to play a part in the outcome.

Playing Favorites

Pari-mutuel wagering first came to the Kentucky Derby in 1908, replacing the bookmakers who previously handled bets. In the 116 Derbies since then, there have been 40 winning favorites, including nine entries that were coupled in the betting with one or two other horses from the same owner or trainer. The 34.5 percent of winning favorites in the Derby is slightly higher than the long-established rule of thumb that one-third of races (33.3 percent) in North America are won by betting favorites.

What’s remarkable about that is the average field size of the Kentucky Derby’s first 149 runnings is 13.4 starters – much higher than the national average field size. That high average field size includes early years that saw as few as three horses (1905) make the Run for the Roses. There have been 20 or more starters on 22 occasions. The smallest Derby field since 13 went to post in 1997 was the pandemic year of 2020, when 15 ran on the first Saturday in September. For the percentage of winning favorites to be as high as 34.5 percent means the large fields often are littered with what many of us might consider hopeless longshots.

On the other hand, since Giacomo shocked the 2005 Kentucky Derby with a $102.60 upset on a $2 wager, there have been four Derby winners that paid over $100, led by Rich Strike’s $163.60 payoff in 2022 – the second highest behind Donerail ($184.90) in 1913. Mine That Bird paid $103.20 in 2009 and Country House paid $132.40 when he was awarded the victory in 2019 via the disqualification of Maximum Security. It's worth noting that, prior to 2001, the tote system could not handle 20 individual betting interests and the longest shots in the field were grouped together as a single betting interest. In 2001, Churchill Downs eliminated mutuel fields and coupled entries from the same trainer or owners.

For whatever reason, favorites tend to win (and lose) in bunches. In the 1970s, six of 10 betting favorites were victorious, including Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Seattle Slew (Affirmed, a third Triple Crown winner from that decade, was second choice behind Alydar). After Spectacular Bid won the 1979 renewal as the 3-5 choice, favorites lost 20 consecutive years. The losing streak was snapped in 2000 by Fusaichi Pegasus.

Betting favorites won a record six Derbies in a row starting in 2013, the year Churchill Downs determined the starting fields through a qualifying points system replacing an older program that based preference on money earned in graded stakes races. But just when we thought the new qualifying system somehow made it easier for favorites to win, five consecutive favorites went down to defeat from 2019 through 2023, though none finished worse than fourth.

The more we learn, it seems, the less we know.